Iran's Political Dilemma
On June 12, 2009, Iran held an election for the post of president. There were four candidates. The current president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mir Hossein Mousavi and two other moderate minor candidates. Mir Hossein Mousavi's support in the weeks leading up to the election surged as younger voters viewed him as more likely to support their hopes for less restrictions and more daily freedoms. As the election voting period came to a close, it is reported that the 12 member governing council notified Mir Hossein Mousavi that he had won the election. A short time later, the very same council announced that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won the presidency 63% to 35%.
In a country were it is reported that polling stations use ballots that are marked with pen and have to be counted by hand, it is hard to believe that tens of millions of votes could have been counted within hours of the polls closing. If the reports are true that Mir Hossein Mousavi was notified that he had won, where did that vote count come from? Election results are normally not reported until three days after the election. Why were the results of this election so soon even if the paper ballots could have been counted in such a short time? Why haven't the vote totals been announced by the Iranian government since there were (apparently) available to determine the winner within a few hours of polls closing?
It is clear that something is amiss with regards to the Iran Presidential election. Could it be that Mir Hossein Mousavi did win overwhelmingly which produced the early notification that he had won and that the 12 member governing council realized that they would have to deal with a reform minded president? Could it be that they felt they could better deal with Ahmadinejad and reversed their announcement and switched the vote totals between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi?
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has a serious problem on his hands. The street demonstrations do not appear to be willing to follow his lead. Can he afford to let loose the Revolutionary Guards to crush the demonstrations and alienate most of the country against his rule? It appears Iran is headed for a major confrontation between the ruling religious leaders and many of its citizens. This recalls Tianamen Square in 1989 when the Chinese elite were presented with demonstrations seeking personal freedom. The Chinese leaders chose to eliminate the demonstrators under the cover of darkness and with foreign reporters banned from the streets. Let's hope the Iranian demonstrations don't end in the same way.
6/18/09 ( 198 )
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